Marketing Due Diligence & Risk Assessment – Will a Business Plan Deliver Shareholder Value?

In this strategic white paper, Professor Malcolm McDonald tackles a fundamental question that boards, CFOs, and marketing leaders must answer: Will our business plan actually deliver the shareholder value it promises?

Combining insight from thousands of business plan evaluations, this paper introduces a proven process for marketing due diligence. It systematically assesses the risk built into a business strategy and its likely impact on future performance, investment decisions, and value creation.

Key Challenges Explored

  • Customers want the most value at the lowest price
  • Shareholders want the greatest return with the least risk
  • Marketers are caught in the middle — and must quantify how their strategy satisfies both

The Three Categories of Business Risk

  1. Market Risk – Is the market really as big as the plan claims?
  2. Share Risk – Will we win the expected share?
  3. Profit Risk – Will we make the expected margin?

Fifteen Risk Factors Unpacked

The paper breaks these three risk categories down into 15 specific, measurable risk factors — from product category maturity and sales volume confidence, to pricing optimism, cost assumptions, and SWOT realism.

The Due Diligence Process

  1. Step 1: Explicate the strategy — identify where growth is expected and how it will be achieved
  2. Step 2: Assess risk across 15 categories using comparative benchmarks
  3. Step 3: Determine whether the adjusted profit exceeds the cost of capital

Who Should Use This?

  • Marketing and business strategists preparing board-level investment plans
  • CFOs and investors evaluating commercial risk in market-facing strategies
  • Private equity, venture capital, and M&A advisors conducting marketing due diligence

Insight

“When risk is accounted for, many business plans fail to beat the returns of a simple bank deposit. Marketing due diligence exposes this — and helps fix it.” – Professor Malcolm McDonald

Download the Full White Paper

This summary covers the framework — the full PDF includes tables, risk definitions, and a step-by-step methodology for marketing and financial integration.

📥 Download the full PDF